Australia’s east coast faces a 30PJ gas shortfall this year and needs additional LNG producer supply, according to a Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) Gas Inquiry 2017-2030 interim report.

The projected shortfall is entirely within the southern states, which face a shortfall of 52PJ, equivalent to around 12% of demand, according to the ACCC.

There are limited options for averting a shortfall in supply in 2023 since non-LNG producers will not be able to supply sufficient gas based on the most current estimates of forecast production.

While LNG producers are expected to have sufficient uncontracted gas to meet uncontracted domestic demand, they are yet to commit sufficient volume under firm contracts to address the risk. LNG producers have 146PJ of gas “in excess of their contractual commitments”, reports the ACCC, and LNG exports are forecast to reach 1,384PJ this year.

While sufficient capacity is available on key pipelines to transport gas to meet the projected supply shortfall, these facilities will be heavily utilised during peak demand periods and present risks of small, infrequent supply deficiencies.